The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1245 on Wednesday, a slight increase from the previous 7.1223, as the central bank navigates the yuan’s ongoing depreciation against the dollar.
The move comes as China’s currency remains under pressure amid economic headwinds and a strong US dollar, which continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve’s higher interest rates. By setting the reference rate higher, the PBOC appears to be allowing more flexibility for the yuan to weaken, while still attempting to manage market expectations.
The yuan has faced a steady decline in recent months as China's post-pandemic recovery lags and the US economy shows resilience. The PBOC has employed various tools, including daily reference rates, to guide the currency without triggering excessive volatility. However, investors are closely watching for signs of more direct intervention from the central bank as the currency approaches sensitive levels.
A weaker yuan could help boost China's export competitiveness, but it also carries risks. Capital outflows and inflation concerns may escalate if the currency weakens too rapidly, which could complicate the PBOC's balancing act between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability.
While the market reaction to the new reference rate was muted, the central bank's future moves will be critical in determining the yuan's trajectory, especially as external factors like US interest rate hikes and global trade dynamics continue to play a key role. For now, the PBOC seems content to make measured adjustments, but investors are preparing for potential volatility if economic conditions worsen.
