The Australian dollar fell sharply on Tuesday as increasing odds of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election stoked global market uncertainty and heightened risk aversion.
As Trump’s polling numbers improve, investors are retreating from risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar, which dropped 0.8% to its lowest level in weeks. The currency, often seen as a barometer for global risk sentiment due to Australia’s trade ties with China and exposure to commodity prices, is now facing growing pressure from political developments abroad.
The prospect of a Trump win is reviving concerns about trade tensions and geopolitical risks, particularly in relation to China, one of Australia’s largest trading partners. Investors fear that a second Trump administration could bring renewed tariffs and strained diplomatic relations, which would further hurt the already fragile global economic outlook.
At the same time, risk-averse investors are flocking to safe-haven assets like the US dollar, which has strengthened on the back of increased demand. As a result, currencies like the Australian dollar are being pushed lower as global markets brace for more potential turbulence.
While Australia’s domestic economy has shown signs of recovery, particularly in the labor market and consumer spending, external risks remain a dominant factor in the Australian dollar’s performance. The next few weeks leading up to the election are likely to see continued volatility, as investors weigh the global impact of potential shifts in US policy.
For now, the Australian dollar’s downward trajectory is expected to persist, with markets closely monitoring both election developments and broader geopolitical risks. Further declines could be in store if uncertainty escalates in the lead-up to election day
